超長期に及ぶ株式投資をすればすべての金融資産で最もリスクが少なく
かつ高利であるとデータを示しています。
そして投資信託による超長期投資を勧めています。

なぜ投資信託による投資を勧めているかというと
超長期に及ぶ投資のためバフェットのような数少ない銘柄では
あまりにも危険すぎるためだと書いてあります。
バフェットは投資の超プロであり1日の大半を株につぎ込むことが
できますが、働いていたりしていては銘柄の研究にそんなに時間は
とれないでしょう。
内容は凄い良いのですがかなり省かれている感があります。
それでも内容はデータを示して事実を書いているので☆５

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Robert

Good first book on value trading

2020年2月16日に英国でレビュー済み

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I read this book for my undergraduate senior design and it proved to be quite useful.

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J. Rogelio

The story is boring.

2013年3月15日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み

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There are many weak points from where Dr. Jeremy Siegel's idea of investing for the long run can be refuted. I am not a pundit of financial markets, but I have a rough picture of how the world does not works.

Firstly, I have to acknowledge Dr. Siegel did an excellent job with the stock prices time series he presented. Generally, all the statistics Dr. Siegel presents are good to depict the story he presents in his (originally 1994 published) book. I am amazed knowing the amount of money an investor would enjoy if he would have sticked to the buy-and-hold strategy since 1802.

There's a slight problem with the idea he presents, no-one lives for two hundred years. I am aware professor Siegel showed this amazing capitalization through a 200-year period in order to make his idea obvious, but there's no need to do this since the people tend to suffer myopia (as Keynes put it, people tend to overdiscount future gains). Recently, I've been studying Life Cycle Hypothesis (by Albert Ando and James Tobin), and it seems saving rates are not rationally driven by economic incentives (such as the idea Dr. Siegel suggests). People live the present not regarding (as we should do) the distant future. If there was no pension plan system, probably households would be worse off by not saving autonomously, and that would be a great problem economists would have to address. Let me restate latter sentence, even with pesion plan system it is not enough for households to keep their status quo. People have to save more autonomously.

Other weak point of the investing strategy Dr. Siegel did not address comes from the sophisticated researches developed by behavioral economists and the joint research between neuroscience and economics (AKA neuroeconomics). Going back to Keynes' idea that people tend to have myopia has found scientific support in these new branches of economics. It has ever been known back since Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments that economic decisions are not carried out rationally by the so called Homo-Economicus; there are other drivers that deviate from rational-optimizing economic decisions, such as psychological factors or even biological factors. For example, in "Science, New Series" magazine (Vol. 306, No. 5695) once I read that there are separate neural systems that value intertemporal economic decisions, namely limbic system (asociated with short-term preferences) and regions of the lateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex (asociated with long-term decisions). Jointly, both neural systems result in a quasi-hyperbolic time discounting function (referred as bete-delta preference). To put it simply, humans do not use a hyperbolic time discounting function often taught in Economics 201.

From another point of view, it is worthless to discuss whether investing for the long run is a bomb-proof investment strategy or not. As Nassim N. Taleb puts it, "I don't want to be the turkey at day 1001."

To finish my humble review, I invite you to read this book to judge yourself.

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シーゲル博士の株式長期投資のすすめ 単行本 – 1999/7/1

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シーゲル博士の株式長期投資のすすめ単行本 – 1999/7/1

上位レビュー、対象国：日本