というNBER論文上がっている原題は「The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates」で、著者はUCアーバインのEric T. Swanson。著者のHPによれば、先月14日に開催された「実効金利下限における金融政策(Monetary policy at the effective lower bound)」と題されたブルッキングス研究所シンポジウム向けに用意した論文とのことで、ungated版スライド資料を公開している。


The Federal Reserve has not been and is not significantly constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates, either in the past or the future. This conclusion is supported by three main observations: First, the Fed’s forward guidance and LSAPs are effective monetary policy tools, about as effective as changes in the federal funds rate in normal times. Second, during 2008–15, the Fed was not very constrained in its ability to affect medium- and longer-term interest rates and the economy. And third, the risks of the Fed being constrained by the ELB in the future are typically greatly overstated. These observations are supported by dozens of papers analyzing a variety of countries and data sets and using a wide variety of methods, ranging from high-frequency financial market responses to affine term structure models to macroeconomic VARs to quarterly bank-level lending data. Although there are a few caveats to keep in mind, the overall conclusion is robust to these concerns.




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