朝鮮半島情勢が動き出した:日本の近現代史を想起せよ

ここのところ拉致問題解決に動く安倍政権は、極東の国際政治の中でいかなるポジションを占めることになるのか、この点について田中宇氏の見解を紹介しよう。政治力学状況の解説として秀逸だし、理解可能だ。

右翼的論者は、韓国を経済的・政治的に過小評価しようとしているが、それはただ彼らの希望に過ぎず、良くない。韓国は実力以上に、極東のキープレーヤーになりうるし、なりつつあるといえるだろう。安倍政権のスタンスは、中韓に対立する姿勢だ。そのスタンスも必要だろう。しかし、ちょっと身を引いてみて、過去の明治以来の日本の近現代史を参考に考えると、正面きって朝鮮半島情勢に深入りすべきではないのではないかとおもわれる。朝鮮半島へ手出しをすると、ろくな事にならない。

政府の指導者(内閣府、キャリア官僚、etc.)は、このことが解っていると思うのだが、そう信じ切れない。我々が常に、日本の近現代史の教訓 --朝鮮半島への深入りが太平洋戦争を帰結した-- を声高に口にしなければならないと思う。


2014年5月30日   田中 宇「拉致問題終結の意味」より一部引用

 中国は、韓国と協調しつつ、北朝鮮核兵器開発をやめさせようとしている。この策が成功すると、中国は、韓国と北朝鮮の両方を傘下に入れ、米国に在韓米軍の撤退を迫るだろう。朝鮮半島は、冷戦の場から中国覇権下に変質する。日本が拉致問題を解決して北を支援することは、この中国の覇権拡大を妨害する策でもある。北朝鮮の対外経済関係の大半は中国が相手だ。日本が貿易や経済支援を再開してくれると、北朝鮮は「中国や韓国から関係を切られても日本がいるのでかまわない」と強気に言えるようになり、中国や韓国の言うことを聞かないようになる。今のタイミングで日本が北との関係を復活することは、北の核兵器開発を助長することにもなる。日本は独自の核兵器を持っていないので、北の核を使って代理的に中国を威嚇させる戦略という見方もできる。 (China agrees North Korea's nuclear activities a serious threat, says South)

http://tanakanews.com/140530japan.htm 


References:
China agrees North Korea's nuclear activities a serious threat, says South

SEOUL Mon May 26, 2014
(Reuters) - South Korea and China agreed on Monday that recent nuclear activity by North Korea posed a serious threat to the peace and stability of the region and Pyongyang must not conduct a nuclear test, Seoul said after a meeting of their top diplomats.

Renewed activity at North Korea's nuclear test site has indicated Pyongyang may be preparing a fourth nuclear test in contravention of U.N. sanctions.

Analysis have suggested the North may be close to miniaturizing a nuclear warhead to mount on a missile, alarming regional powers that have for two decades tried to rein in Pyongyang's atomic program.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with his South Korea counterpart Yun Byung-se to discuss the North's nuclear program, as well as an upcoming visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul this year, South Korea's foreign ministry said.

"The two ministers agreed to step up cooperation based on the united position that they object to the North's nuclear test and that recent nuclear activities by the North pose a serious threat to the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the region," the ministry said.

China, North Korea's lone major ally, is usually very guarded in its opinion on Pyongyang's nuclear program, usually expressing its desire for a nuclear-free "Korean peninsula" and careful not to be seen to be taking sides.

Wang said before his meeting with Yun that it was important for six regional partners, including the United States and North Korea, to work to resume the so-called six-party talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program.

The talks produced an agreement in 2005 to provide impoverished North Korea with aid in return for Pyongyang taking steps to suspend its nuclear programs. But the deal was proclaimed dead in 2008 by Pyongyang and Washington.

The United States and South Korea demand the North take steps agreed in the 2005 deal as a precondition to more talks. But Pyongyang and Beijing, which has hosted the negotiations, have since sought an unconditional resumption.

Separately on Monday, a former official of the U.S. State Department, Joel Wit, confirmed he had met with North Korea's chief delegate to the six-party talks, Ri Yong-ho, but the State Department said it was a private, not an official contact.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the talks, which also involved a former CIA analyst, Robert Carlin, took place in the Mongolian capital of Ulan Bator on Friday.

Wit, who worked in the past on U.S. strategies to deal with North Korea's nuclear weapons program and is now a visiting fellow at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, confirmed to Reuters that the meeting had taken place, but declined to give details.

An official at the U.S. State Department said it had its own separate channels of communication with North Korea and no current U.S. government official had participated.

"They are acting in their private capacity," the official said. "If any former U.S. government officials choose to meet (North Korean) officials, they do so in their private capacity and will not be carrying any messages from the U.S. government."

The official said the U.S. message to North Korea was unchanged - that Washington remained committed to "authentic and credible negotiations" to implement the 2005 agreement.

"But the onus is on North Korea to take meaningful actions toward denuclearization and refrain from provocations," he said.

                                                                                  • -

(Reporting by Jack Kim; Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington; Editing by Nick Macfie and Dan Grebler)
(REUTERS NEWS:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/26/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSBREA4P0A420140526)







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