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2016-02-16 Bendel and Hua (1978) を引用する文献

Works citing Bendel and Hua (1978)


Revised version [2017-03-15 added]

"Works citing Bendel and Hua on natural fecundability: a literature review on the origin of a falsified chart used in high school education in Japan". Annual Reports of Graduate School of Arts and Letters, Tohoku University. 66: 142-128 (2017).
http://tsigeto.info/17a
改稿したもの (英語) を『東北大学文学研究科研究年報』66: 142-128 (2017) に掲載しました

目的と方法

2015-09-15の記事「年齢−受胎確率曲線の文献間のちがいについて」 および
田中 重人 (2016)「「妊娠・出産に関する正しい知識」が意味するもの: プロパガンダのための科学?」(特集「一億総活躍の中の男女共同参画:第4次基本計画を読む」)『生活経済政策』230 http://tsigeto.info/16a 〔印刷中〕
で言及している、次の論文を引用する文献群をチェックした。

Bendel, Jean-Pierre, and Chang-i Hua (1978) "An estimate of the natural fecundability ratio curve." Social biology. 25(3): 210-227. doi:10.1080/19485565.1978.9988340

Bendel and Hua (1978) を引用する文献は、Scopus で7件、Web of Sciences で13件、Google Scholar で16件 (ヒットは17件だが、うち1件は文献一覧に記載なし) である (2016年2月3日)。重複しているものを差し引き、さらに他の方法で見つけた文献をふくめると、全23件。

なお、これらのなかに、データと推定方法をくわしく説明しているものはない。この研究についてきちんと批判するには、この Bendel and Hua (1978) か、ほぼおなじ推定方法の説明が載っている Bendel の博士論文

Bendel, Jean-Pierre (1978) A model of births for developing countries and its use in the study of demographic effect of birth control (Ph.D. dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University). UMI Dissertation Services 7814379. http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ncid/BA8994655X

を参照する必要があるが、この博士論文を引用した文献は見当たらない。

結果

Bendel and Hua (1978) はそもそも被引用数が少なく、ほとんどは先行研究のひとつとして簡単に紹介されているだけである。

台湾のデータを使った10代の受胎確率 (fecundability) 推定に対しては、その方法や解釈を検討したものはない。

  • Pennington and Harpending (1988) が、受胎確率が上昇していくようにみえるのは妊娠可能になった個体がコーホート内で増加するためであって、個人内で fecundity が上がっていくわけではない、と論じている
  • Ellison (1994) が、みんなたいして考えずに生理学的な原因によって上昇すると仮定してるよね? 的なことを書いている

というのはあるが、Bendel and Hua (1978) 推定の具体的な問題を指摘しているわけではない。

北米ハテライトのデータを使った25歳以降のfecundability推定については、次の指摘がある。

  • Salo (1979) が、あちこちのデータから持ってきた指標を合成することの問題を指摘。
  • James (1979) が、不妊率の外挿データが妥当でない (ハテライトの高齢女性ではもっと高い) 可能性を指摘。
  • James (1979) が、推定のもととなった Mindel C. Sheps (1965) のデータに基づいて、女性の出生率を規定する要因は年齢そのものというより結婚からの経過年数であることを指摘し、Bendel and Hua (1978) が推定した受胎確率低下の大部分は、結婚期間が長くなるにつれて性行動が不活発になるという要因で説明できると論じている。
  • Wood (1989: 77)Wood (1994: 296) も、結婚期間の長さが性行動の変化を通じて受胎確率に影響している可能性を指摘している (が、この部分では Sheps (1965) の元データには言及しておらず、Bendel and Hua (1978) 推定の方法上の問題と考えているようには読めない)

これらの指摘について、Bendel and Hua (1978) の推定を支持する立場からの反論は見当たらない。

Bendel and Hua (1978) を引用する文献一覧と引用の文脈

新→古の順に配列。書誌情報末尾の [S] [G] [W] は記載されているデータベースを示す (S: Scopus; G: Google Scholar; W: Web of Sciences)。

(2014) K. Snopkowski + H Kaplan. "A synthetic biosocial model of fertility transition: testing the relative contribution of embodied capital theory, changing cultural norms, and women's labor force". American journal of physical anthropology 154(3): 322-333. DOI=10.1002/ajpa.22512. [SGW]
p. 327 当該研究で外挿するデータ元のひとつとして紹介

(2006) D. J. Holman + K. A. O'Connor + J. W. Wood. "Age and female reproductive function: identifying the most important biological determinants". ed.= C. Sauvain-dugerdil + H. Leridon. Human clocks: The Bio-cultural Meanings of Age: 171-199. Peter Lang. ISBN=3039107852. [G]
p. 186 Fecundability の年齢による変化の原因の分解について説明するところで、先行研究のひとつとして紹介

(2003) Sharon R. Williams. Energy balance, health and fecundity among Bhutia women of Gangtok, Sikkim, India (Ph.D. dissertation, Ohio State University). URL (Full-text): http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1061295651 [G]
p. 8 先行研究のひとつとして紹介: “Early studies on age-specific fertility suggested that rates increase with age and attain peak values in the 30s (Montague, 1957; Bendel & Hua, 1978).”

(2000) D. B. Dunson + H. Zhou. "A Bayesian model for fecundability and sterility". Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(452): 1054-1062. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2000.10474302 [SGW]
p. 1057 モデル構築のための変数選択の参考とする先行研究: “Mean effective fecundability based on live births has been observed ... to rise to a peak in the late 20s and then decline steadily (Bendel and Hua 1978; Jain 1969; Wood et al 1994)” (いろいろ読み間違ってる?)

(1998) L. J. Smits + G. A. Zielhuis + P. H. Jongbloet + H. Straatman. "Seasonal variation in human fecundability.". Human Reproduction 13(12): 3520-3524. ISSN=02681161; DOI=10.1093/humrep/13.12.3520. [SGW]
p. 3522 10代における低さに言及

(1998) B. I. Strassmann + J. H. Warner. "Predictors of fecundability and conception waits among the Dogon of Mali". American Journal of Physical Anthropology 105(2): 167-184. http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/37683 [SGW]
p. 175 当該研究における計算結果と比較している: “Contistent with previous studies (Bendel and Hua, 1978; Jain, 1969a; Wood et al., 1994), fecundability had an inverse U-shaped relationship with age.”

(1997) B. I. Strassmann. "The biology of menstruation in Homo sapiens: total lifetime menses, fecundity, and nonsynchrony in a natural-fertility population". Current Anthropology 38(1): 123-129. URL (Full-text): http://www.jstor.org/stable/2744446 [GW]
p. 125 当該研究で得たデータを先行研究と比較している: “This result is consistent with reports that fecundability has and inverse U-shaped relationship with age (Bendel and Hua 1978, Jain 1969, Wood and Weinstein 1988).”

(1996) P. T. Ellison. "Age and developmental effects on human ovarian function". Variability in human fertility (Cambridge studies in biological anthropology 19): 69-90. Cambridge University Press. ISBN=0521495695. [G]

p. 70 先行研究のひとつとして言及: “Fertility rates rise seardily over the first decade of the reproductive span (Bendel & Hua, 1978), reaching a peak in the third decade of life.”

(1994) James W. Wood. Dynamics of human reproduction: biology, biometry, demography. Aldine De Gruyter. ISBN=0202011798.

p. 296 夫婦の年齢だけでなく、結婚期間も交絡しているとの指摘
p. 322 Bendel and Hua (1978) データを改変したグラフ (→ http://d.hatena.ne.jp/remcat/20150915)

(1994) J. W. Wood + D. J. Holman + A. I. Yashin + R. J. Peterson. "A multistate model of fecundability and sterility". Demography, 31(3): 402-426. ISSN=00703370; NCID=AA00154644; DOI=10.2307/2061750. URL (Table of Contents): http://www.jstor.org/journals/00703370.html [SGW]
p. 421 当該研究の計算結果を先行研究と比較:“In agreement with earlier studies (Bendel and Hua 1978; Jain 1969), mean effective fecundability often follows an inverted U-shaped curve, rising to a peak in the late twenties and declining steadily thereafter.”

(1994) P. T. Ellison. "Advances in human reproductive ecology". Annual Review of Anthropology 23: 255-275. URL (Full-text): http://www.jstor.org/stable/2156014 [GW]

p. 258 研究史を紹介する中で先行研究のひとつとして言及: “As noted previously, little attention has been given to the separate question of increasing marital natural fertility in the first decade after menarche, although this is usually also assumed to be a function of female reproductive physiology (15, 65, 99, 154)” ([15] が Bendel and Hua (1978))

(1993) Maxine Weinstein + James Wood + Chang Ming-Cheng. "Age patterns of fecundability". ed.= Ronald Gray + Henri Leridon + Alfred Spira. Biomedical and demographic determinants of reproduction (International studies in demography): 209-227. Clarendon Press. ISBN:0198283717

p. 209 先行研究と論争史の紹介: “It is now well established that apparent fecundability varies in a systematic fashion with the age of the female partner, rising rapidly to a peak during the early 20s and then declining slowly to zero at about the time of menopause (Bendel and Hua, 1978). However, there is a remarkable lack of agreement about the cause of these changes, in particular whether they are attributable primarily to changes in coital frequency or to changes in the female's physiological ability to begin and maintain a pregnancy (cf. Bendel and Hua, 1978; James, 1979).”

(1993) Meredith L. Golden + Sara R. Millman. "Models of fecundability". ed.= Ronald Gray + Henri Leridon + Alfred Spira. Biomedical and demographic determinants of reproduction (International studies in demography): 183-208. Clarendon Press. ISBN:0198283717
p. 201 先行研究 (Wood and Weinstein 1986, A model of age-specific fecundability (Research Report 86-101), Michigan Population Studies Center, Michigan University) がモデル評価に使った先行研究として紹介

(1992) Alexandra Avril Brewis. Age and infertility: An ethnodemographic study from Butaritari Atoll, Kiribati (Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Arizona). http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185797
p. 57 文献レビューのセクションにブロック引用あり: “A woman's fecundability declines immediately after the first half twenties and ... that the decline is approximately linear all the way to the zero level near her menopause (Bendel and Hua 1978:217).” このあと、fecundability は操作的に定義された概念であり、fecundity を近似するものと考えるのは無理 (だけど実際にはそうされている) という趣旨の記述。

(1990) 木下太志. "東北地方一農村の結婚と出生, 1760-1870". 人類学雜誌 98(3): 317-336. ISSN=00035505; NCID=AN0012418X; NAID=110000240879; DOI=10.1537/ase1911.98.317. CiNii Directory: AN0012418X [GW]
p. 330-331 歴史資料から出産力の behavioral な面を見ることの意義について: “Menken et al. (1981) は,これまで歴史人口学者が長期および短期の人口移動が出生率に与える影響を軽視してきたと忠告し、また、Bendel and Hua (1978),James (1974) は出産力の behavioral な側面である性交の頻度が,出産力を決定するうえで重要であるとしている。”

(1990) M. Weinstein + J. W. Wood + M. A. Stoto + D. D. Greenfield. "Components of age-specific fecundability". Population Studies 44(3): 447-467. ISSN=00324728; DOI=10.1080/0032472031000144846. [SW]

p. 447-448 “It is now well established that effective fecundability varies in a systematic fashion with the age of the female partner, rising rapidly to a peak during her early 20s and then declining slowly to zero at about the time of menopause.3 However, there is a remarkable lack of agreement about the cause of these changes, in particular whether they are attributable primarily to changes in coital frequency, or to changes in the female's physiological ability to begin and maintain a pregnancy.4” (3, 4 は文献注)

(1989) James W. Wood. "Fecundity and natural fertility in humans". Oxford reviews of reproductive biology 11: 61-109. URL (abstract): http://www.popline.org/node/376892 [GW]

p. 78 Bendel and Hua (1978) データを改変したグラフ (→ http://d.hatena.ne.jp/remcat/20150915)。夫婦の年齢だけでなく、結婚期間も交絡しているとの指摘

(1988) J. W. Wood + M. Weinstein. "A model of age-specific fecundability". Population studies 42(1): 85-113. ISSN=00324728. URL (Full-text): http://www.jstor.org/stable/2174529 [SW]
p. 87 文献レビューのセクション: “Not surprisingly, then, there is empirical evidence that both total and effective fecundability vary systematically with age, rising from low levels after menarche to a broad peak during the mid-reproductive years and then falling again in the years preceding menopause.16 There appears to be no firm consensus about the relative contributions of the various factors determining fecundability to these age patterns.17” (16, 17 は文献注)
p. 102 この研究の計算結果との比較: “Even more gratifying, the detailed shape of the curve is quite similar to that constructed by Bendel and Hua67 from a variety of sources, save that our curve is somewhat flatter between ages 20 and 30.” (67 は文献注)

(1988) R. Pennington + H. Harpending. "Fitness and fertility among Kalahari !Kung". American journal of physical anthropology 77(3): 303-319. DOI=10.1002/ajpa.1330770304. [W]

p. 304 出生力のパターンについての文献レビューのセクション: “Many models show fecundity to be low at menarche, peak sharply during the mid-twenties, and then gradually decline to zero prior to menopause (Henry, 1961; Jain, 1969; Bendel and Hua, 1978).” “Although the contribution of fecundity to fertility patterns is difficult to assess without methods for reliably assessing when a female enters the susceptible period, (Bendel and Hua, 1978), once a female has demonstrated her fecundity by giving birth to her first offspring, fecundity is probably at its maximum and only appears to increase subsequently due to averaging over a cohort with women who have not yet reached reproductive maturity.”

(1985) R. S. S. Sarma. Parity specific birth probabilities by duration of marriage (CDC Working Paper 11). Cairo Demographic Centre. URL: http://www.popline.org/node/415915 [G]
p. 1 先行研究のひとつとして、データと推定方法だけを簡単に紹介。

(1984) Lucie Cheng + Charlotte Furth + Hon-ming Yip. Women in China. Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Center for Chinese Studies. ISBN=0912966726; NCID=BA04126999. [G]
p. 19 書誌情報のみ。

(1979) William H. James. "The causes of the decline in fecundability with age". 26(4): 330-334. DOI=10.1080/19485565.1979.9988390. [GW]

p. 331 Bendel and Hua (1978) 推定における不妊率の外挿データへの疑問: “their estimates of age of onset of natural sterility are based on Treloar's data (1974) on menopause. But one may wonder whether Hutterite women in general reach menopause as late as the women in Treloar's sample (1974). ... Bearing in mind the very large number of children borne to Hutterite women, one might wonder whether these women reach menopause unusually early.” (... は引用時省略)
p. 333 ハテライトの年齢別出生率と結婚時年齢との関係 (Mindel C. Sheps 1965): “the Hutterite data presented by Sheps (1965) ... shows that Hutterite cumulative duration-specific birth rates over the first ten years of marriage are almost identical for women married at ages 25-29, and at ages 20-24, and at ages less than 20.”

(1979) M. A. Salo. "Pretesting input data of computer simulation models". Scandinavian Population Studies. 5:292-303 (ISSN: 0782-1859) URL: http://www.popline.org/node/457684. URL (author-version? Full-text): http://www.ibrarian.net/navon/page.jsp?paperid=1245941 [G]

p. 292 “Many difficulties, however, usually are involved in the procedure of estimating these basic parameters directly from the population of interest. Some of the important variables are not even directly observable (e.g., the frequency of spontaneous early abortions). // An available solution to the problem is to complete the input data required with estimates which have been obtained from prior studies on the populations of interest or "indeed from the data which do not even pertain exactly to this population"... And there seems to be an expanding tendency to accept it among the workers in this area (c.f., Bendel and Chang-i Hua 1978). Too often, however, the biometric input achieved in this way consists of a heterogeneous sample of measurement results from computations with no evident historical, cultural or geographical comparability. // A model is only as good as it poorest input.” (// は段落。 ... は引用時省略)

Google Scholar でヒットするが、文献一覧に記載がないもの

(1998) S. P. Martin + L. P. Wu. The subsequent fertility of adolescent mothers in the United States (CDE Working Paper 98-01). University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Demography and Ecology. URL (Full-text): http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/98-01.pdf. URL (Table of Contents): http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/1998papers.php[G]

本題と関係のない雑感

Apparent/effective fecundability の概念が混乱してるようにみえるのだが、そう理解していいのだろうか。(特に Weinstein, Wood, and Ming-Cheng (1993)Weinstein, Wood, Stoto, and Greenfield (1988))