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2017-03-15 Origin of falsified chart used in high schools in Japan



TANAKA Sigeto (2017) "Works citing Bendel and Hua on natural fecundability: a literature review on the origin of a falsified chart used in high school education in Japan". Annual Reports of Graduate School of Arts and Letters, Tohoku University. 66: 142-128. http://www.sal.tohoku.ac.jp/~tsigeto/17a.html

このグラフの「原典」である Bendel and Hua (1978) "An estimate of the natural fecundability ratio curve". Social Biology. 25 (doi:10.1080/19485565.1978.9988340) について、内容を簡単に解説したうえで、それを引用する論文計23点の検討結果を報告したもの。Bendel-Hua による推定は年齢の効果を過大推定しており、その問題は何度も指摘されている。したがって、たとえグラフの改竄がなかったとしてもこの推定結果を利用することは不適切であり、そのことは研究史を網羅的にレビューしていればわかったはずであることを指摘している。


This paper reports the results of a literature review on "An Estimate of the Natural Fecundability Ratio Curve" by Bendel and Hua (1978, Social Biology 25). The estimation of this work was the origin of a falsified chart on women's age-fertility profile that was featured in a high school health education material published in 2015 by the government of Japan. The author searched citation databases and collected 23 works citing the study. A review of the 23 works showed that biases and unreliability of the Bendel-Hua estimation had been pointed repeatedly. The results imply that the chart would be inappropriate for educational use, even if it were not falsified. Both the Japanese government and academics are responsible for the inappropriate chart being used without a comprehensive literature review to insure the reliability of scientific knowledge.


Table of contents:

  • 1. Background
  • 2. Aim and Method
  • 3. Results
    • 3.1. Estimates for Hutterite women aged 25 and over
    • 3.2. Estimates for Taiwanese women aged 16-24
    • 3.3. Other problems
  • 4. Discussion

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