といいたいための勉強エントリーです*1。今日の他の実践経済学と微妙に関係してますが。
ジャネット・イェレンの「グローバル化、インフレーション、金融政策」に関する国際シンポジウムでの発言から田中が気になったところだけ引用。
http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2008/0307.html
・中国発インフレ（もしくはデフレ）とかグローバル化は、驚くほど国内物価に影響してない（まあ、実証はこれからも継続するけれども）
In my view, however, the impact of the tailwinds associated with global competition are frequently overstated.1 Most research to assess the magnitude of direct and indirect linkages between import prices and inflation for the U.S. and other industrial countries finds that the impact, thus far, has been surprisingly limited. For example, a 2006 IMF analysis calculates that non-oil import price reductions lowered U.S. inflation by an average of ½ percentage point a year over the period from 1997 to 2005.2 This finding is in line with an analysis at the Federal Reserve Board that estimates that lower (core) import prices reduced core U.S. inflation by an annual average of ½ to 1 percentage point over the past 10 years.3 A Fed study focusing specifically on China’s impact on U.S. consumer prices also finds only modest effects—since 1993, about 0.1 percentage point per year.4 Remember that, even now, non-traded goods and services represent the large majority of U.S. domestic consumption.
・フィリップス曲線の水平化がグローバル化で引き起こされるか？
ここが論争の主戦場かな？
・ Globalization has certainly enhanced the opportunities for firms to substitute imports for domestic output. And firms operating plants in several countries are increasingly able to shift production from domestic plants to those in lower-cost countries. These growing opportunities for substitution could certainly affect wage and price dynamics explaining, in particular, why the Phillips curve appears to have flattened in many industrial countries.
このグローバル化が労働市場の調整を通じてフィリップス曲線の水平化を生み出したのか？ という仮説を支持するかもしれない実証もある。ただしそうではない＝グローバル化は影響していない、という実証も豊富。
・A flattening of the Phillips curve could explain why inflation has become less volatile in industrial countries. However, the finding of a flatter Phillips curve is open to differing interpretations. For example, a Board study estimates Phillips curve equations over the period 1977-2005 for 11 OECD countries and found the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap has declined over time in many of the countries in the sample, but it found no evidence that this decline was attributable to globalization.7 Other studies by the OECD8 and by Larry Ball draw similar conclusions.
労働供給側が職を失うのをびびってしまっている可能性はあるかもしれないので検証が必要
・It is also worth considering the possibility that globalization could be holding inflation down by making workers in the U.S. and elsewhere more fearful of job loss, thus lowering wage demands. I agree with Bill that this may account for the declining wage share in output in the G-10 countries and could explain why, in the U.S. at least, there has been so little evidence of “real wage resistance” in the face of energy, food, and import price shocks. The empirical challenge is to estimate the effects of globalization through these channels when the actual substitution of inputs and outsourcing is limited, but the threat is large.
（すでに記憶が薄れてるので違ったら訂正しますが）水野和夫さんらの世界デフレ仮説（世界的GDPギャップ仮説と代替可能）への実証的根拠のなさの指摘
・ For example, the Board study I just referred to does not find any significant effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation. Moreover, San Francisco Fed staff found that measures of world capacity are not significant when added to the Phillips curves that they use to forecast inflation, and that the usual measures of domestic labor and product market slack retain their significance.
アメリカの金融政策へのクレディビリティが低インフレを可能にしている（他の国でもそれで成功している）ので、グローバル化が原因じゃない。
・Bill credits supply-side factors associated with both domestic deregulation and globalization in holding down inflation. I consider it a mistake, however, to downplay the role of monetary policy, in particular its credibility. In the U.S. case, it is the credibility of monetary policy that, in my view, has helped to insure that the inflation shocks resulting from energy, food, materials, and exchange rates do not spill over into inflation expectations and wage setting, and thus have only transitory effects. Credibility accounts for why inflation appears generally to have become less persistent. Households and firms believe that such shocks will not be allowed to feed into further increases in inflation, so inflation expectations have become better anchored. Indeed, much research documents that movements in energy prices have had far smaller effects on core inflation since the mid- 1980s, and the most compelling reason for this shift is the credibility of monetary policy.
ところで日本は？ イェレンはここでは日本のケースを批判的には触れないけれども彼女の低インフレの方が経済活性化するという立場からすればデフレは低インフレ政策が成功したのではなく失敗したからだ、というでしょうね。もちろんBOJグループビューは違うわけだけども 笑（http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/200711boj/KimuraKurozumiHara_2007.pdfなど参照のこと）
